Fund Finance · Exit Scenarios

“If Acme Exits at 5x, What Happens to My Fund?”

Stop building one-off spreadsheets every time an LP asks about potential returns. Archstone models exit outcomes per company with adjustable multiples and shows you fund-level TVPI, MOIC, DPI, and each company's contribution to total proceeds — in real time.

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The question every LP asks that takes you a week to answer

Your largest LP is on the phone. They heard that one of your portfolio companies is in acquisition talks. “What does a 5x exit on that company mean for the fund? What about 3x? What if two companies exit this year?” You tell them you'll get back to them. You open a spreadsheet. You look up the investment amount, your ownership percentage, the current valuation, the fund size, the management fees you've collected, the distributions you've already made. You build a model. You realize you forgot to account for dilution from the Series B. You rebuild it. Three days later, you send a PDF.

This happens every quarter. An LP asks about scenarios. A board member wants to understand exit sensitivity. You want to prepare for your annual meeting. Every time, you build a new spreadsheet from scratch because the old one is stale, the ownership numbers changed, and you can't remember which version accounted for the follow-on.

Archstone already has your investment amounts, ownership percentages, current valuations, fund size, and distribution history. The exit scenario engine lets you set an exit multiple for each company — 1x, 3x, 5x, 10x, whatever you want — and instantly see the proceeds to the fund, the deal MOIC, and the impact on fund-level TVPI and DPI. Adjust one company's multiple and watch the fund numbers update in real time. Run bear, base, and bull scenarios across your entire portfolio in minutes.

Portfolio-wide exit analysis, not one-off spreadsheets

Per-company exit multiples

Set an exit multiple for each portfolio company independently. Your seed-stage bet might exit at 10x while your later-stage investment exits at 2x. The model handles mixed scenarios across your entire portfolio simultaneously.

Fund-level impact metrics

Every scenario instantly shows total proceeds to fund, fund MOIC, fund TVPI (including unrealized holdings), and estimated DPI. See exactly how each exit contributes to your overall fund performance.

Bear / base / bull presets

One-click scenario presets apply conservative, moderate, and optimistic exit multiples across your portfolio. See the range of outcomes without manually adjusting every company. Customize presets to match your fund's stage and sector.

Contribution breakdown

See which companies drive your fund returns. The contribution analysis shows each company's proceeds as a percentage of total proceeds — instantly revealing concentration risk and identifying which exits move the needle.

Live portfolio data

Exit modeling pulls directly from your Archstone portfolio — investment amounts, ownership percentages, current valuations, and fund economics. No manual data entry. No stale spreadsheets. The model is always current.

Include/exclude toggles

Toggle individual companies in or out of a scenario. Want to see fund returns if only your top 3 companies exit? Exclude the rest. Modeling a partial portfolio sale? Include only the relevant positions.

When GPs use exit scenario modeling

LP Annual Meetings

Show LPs the path to returns

Walk your LPs through bear, base, and bull scenarios for the portfolio. Show them which companies drive returns and what realistic exit assumptions look like. Turns a vague “we're on track” into a data-driven conversation.

Follow-On Decisions

Model the impact before writing the check

Considering a follow-on investment? Model the exit scenario with and without the additional capital. See how increased ownership at a higher valuation changes the fund-level outcome before committing reserves.

Fund II Fundraising

Project Fund I outcomes for prospective LPs

When raising Fund II, prospective LPs want to see Fund I trajectory. Exit scenario modeling lets you present realistic return projections based on your actual portfolio, not hypothetical models in a pitch deck.

Frequently asked questions

Does the model account for dilution?

Yes. Exit proceeds are calculated using your current ownership percentage, which already reflects dilution from subsequent rounds. If you track investment rounds in Archstone, ownership is automatically updated as new rounds are added.

Can I share scenario results with LPs?

Exit scenarios are designed as GP-facing analysis tools. You can use the results to inform LP conversations and annual meeting presentations. The data feeds your quarterly reports and LP letters, giving you concrete numbers to reference.

Does it include waterfall distributions and carry?

Exit scenario modeling shows gross fund-level metrics (TVPI, MOIC, DPI). For net-of-carry analysis, use the waterfall distribution calculator alongside exit scenarios. The two tools complement each other — model the exits, then run the waterfall to see GP carry and LP net returns.

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